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Chinese academy of social sciences report: estimated annual economic growth of around 6.6 percent in 2018

- Oct 12, 2018 -

The " NAES quarterly analysis of macroeconomic situation (q3 2018)"jointly organized by the institute of financial strategy of the Chinese academy of social sciences and xinhua news agency economic information daily was held in Beijing on oct 9. The experts and scholars present at the meeting analyzed the current macroeconomic situation and the economic trend in the third quarter of 2018, and discussed the policy Suggestions for dealing with economic and financial risks. The research group predicts that China's GDP will increase by 6.7 percent in the first three quarters of 2018 and the economy will grow by about 6.6 percent in the whole year.


The research group of the school of economics reported that the global economy continued to recover in the third quarter of 2018, the us economy continued to grow strongly, and the eurozone and Japan's economic growth was weaker than that of the us. International economic divergence, fed rate hike, escalation of sino-us trade dispute, increased economic risks in some emerging market countries, complex external environment has multiple negative impacts on China's economy, and economic and financial risks are on the rise.


In the third quarter of this year, China's economic growth remained within a reasonable range, but downward pressure continued to increase. The employment situation is generally stable, and we need to pay attention to the lagging impact of trade friction upgrading on employment. The price trend is basically stable, and the supply shock leads to a slight rise in prices. The overall import and export trade is good, and there may be current account deficit in the whole year; The overall financial operation is stable and financial risks should not be underestimated.


At present, there are several prominent problems in the economic field that need to be focused on. The difficulties facing the real economy are more prominent. The labor cost of enterprises continues to rise significantly, and the actual tax burden of enterprises generally increases. The financing difficulties of small and medium-sized private enterprises have increased. The declining trend of fixed asset investment has not been fundamentally reversed. The growth rate of household consumption continues to slow down, and the actual growth rate of consumption is lower than that of GDP. Downward pressure on some major coastal provinces has been prominent.


Given the rising trade friction between China and the United States, increasing downward pressure on the domestic economy and increasing difficulties faced by enterprises in their development, it is of vital importance to boost confidence and stabilize expectations. It is suggested to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to ensure effective transmission of monetary policies to the real economy. Focusing on the supply-side structural reform, we significantly increased tax cuts and fees. We will increase efforts to strengthen weak links in the infrastructure sector and unleash new vitality in private investment. We will balance steady growth with deleveraging and guard against systemic financial risks.


China's economic growth is expected to slow slightly to 6.6 percent in the third quarter of 2018, after falling further to 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter. China's GDP is expected to grow by 6.7 percent in the first three quarters of 2018 and the economy to grow by about 6.6 percent in the whole year. After taking the necessary policy measures, China's economy is expected to grow by about 6.3 percent in 2019.



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